Will Google+ Reach 400 Million Users By The End Of 2012? (Forecast)

If Google really intended to create a mysterious halo behind Google+ then it is working- Many online sources (including me!) were occupied lately by guessing and estimating how many users the social networking service has. Now, a very intriguing estimation predicts that by the end of 2012 Google+ would have 400 million users.

Paul Allen Model: 62 Million Users Now

The unofficial statistician of Google+, Paul Allen, has posted his current body count estimation for Google+ and forecasts its growth for next year. He is indicating that as for late December, Google+ has 62 million users, pretty close to my 65-70 million estimation. Interestingly enough, nearly quarter of the users (12 million) have joined Google+ just in December.

Here’s what Paul Allen model, which basically formulates common surname in Google+ as their relative percentage in the overall population, has found so far:

  • Mid-July – 10 million users
  • August – 20.5 million users
  • September – 24.7 million users
  • October – 38 million users
  • November – 43 million users
  • December – 50 million users
  • Late-December – 62 million users

Google Plus Growth Graph December 2011

Growth Rate Increase Will Result 400 Million Users By The End Of 2012

According to Paul’s model, the present new members growth rate is now at 625 thousand new users every day, which projects 100 million users at the end of February, 200 million at the beginning of August and finish 2012 with 293 million users. However, Paul is assuming that the current growth rate will just increase.

As Google will keep implement and market its social network among all its platforms and products and as more registered users will encourage their family and friends to join, the daily new users growth rate will move beyond the 625 thousand mark. Consequently, Paul is predicting Google+ will have more than 400 million users at the end of 2012.

Is It Possible?

Can Google+ really reach for 400 million users at the end of next year? Well, Paul Allen model already proved itself as pretty accurate- His prior estimation of 43 million users has been collaborated with Google’s official (and only) numbers when Larry Page announced that Google+ passed the 40 million user mark in October.

As for his accelerated growth rate assumption, it seems logical and sounds like the best guess i heard so far, but it still ignores other effects like competitors, new products and social behavioral changes. The social networking industry is very volatile and it wouldn’t surprise me if Google+ would even reach 500 million users next year or trample around the 100-150 million users. Everything goes…